ANALYSIS

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WAVE ANALYSIS

W1

On the daily chart of the pair a version of marking of the alternative waves "{d} or {iv}" with basic cycle of optimization of market data in one week is presented.

The events of the last week have clarified DIAMETRIC formation wave completion, but, unfortunately, as for further wave development structure as well as long term perspectives there are only suppositions. The moment is rather rare but it is a little bit unpleasant, because pattern completion is confirmed but further development structure has alternatives.

On the chart with daily period of data optimization 2 variants are represented. As for me, the most probable variant is favouring to (x)-wave formation, but marking is represented by monowaves with minimal duration of half a day and therefore such kind of marking will not be so precise as we would like to have. Nevertheless, in this variant, the beginning of the week will complete A-wave formation, and further development of bullish B-wave can be a sign of probability of (x)-wave pattern formation according to Triangle type or according to Flat Correction type. The alternative variant of Trend Impulsion formation after the completion of the waves with bigger degree has one feature concerning the fact that duration of (2)-wave which is forming now has not achieved yet (1)-wave duration and that is why it is supposed that all the further week will finish (2)-wave formation with further strong bearish rally in (3)-wave. As the objection we could mark that the time of second segment formation is less that for the first one, therefore the pattern which is forming could not be Zigzag or Impulsion. If the time of the second segment formation in comparison to the first one formation is 100% to 261%, both Impulsion and Zigzag could be formed. And if the second segment has the duration that is more than 300% according to the first one, the pattern which is forming will be Zigzag.

In our case Zigzag, as the pattern after waves of bigger degree is not suitable, that is why if the last week low is not renewed firmly, the alternative variant of Impulsion development and the completion of the patterns of bigger degree will not be actual.

Having resumed the above-mentioned observations, at the beginning of the week it is logical to suppose short-term buying positions from the levels that are close to the previous week Low, and it is possible that in the mid-week outlook we will have additional signs favouring or denying to one of the mentioned alternatives of further developments.

EUR/USD-W1:

Work chart:


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